Archive Issue
International Interdisciplinary Scientific Journal "Expert"
Volume 2, Issue 1 (2025)
Language of the original article: English
ABSTRACT. The article substantiates the importance of ensuring Ukraine's energy security, the state of which is determined by the conditions of the internal environment of the functioning and development of the energy system, as well as the influence of external environmental factors. The spectrum of threats to Ukraine's energy security is identified in the following areas: threats caused by war; threats of a financial, economic, technical and technological nature; cyber threats and information attacks; environmental requirements and climate challenges; threats associated with corruption and ineffective management. A scientific and methodical approach to assessing the level of threats to energy security based on probabilistic neural networks is proposed. The input parameters for assessing the degree of threats to the country's energy security are proposed to be formed on the basis of an expert survey. To check the consistency of expert judgments, it is proposed to carry out clustering of expert assessments. The authors substantiate that a clear identification of threats in terms of their types, taking into account their content, qualitative and quantitative context of threats, and assessment of the probable degree of threats using the proposed scientific and methodical approach based on neural networks will serve as the basis for making informed management decisions to prevent / minimize / eliminate the negative impact of factors on the energy security of Ukraine.
Keywords: energy security, energy sector, threats, risks, assessment, management, economic and mathematical modeling, neural networks.
2. Kabinet Ministriv Ukrainy. (2023, April 21). Pro skhvalennia Enerhetychnoi stratehii Ukrainy na period do 2050 roku (Rozporiadzhennia № 373-r). https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/373-2023-r#Text
3. Kabinet Ministriv Ukrainy. (2017). Pro skhvalennia Enerhetychnoi stratehii Ukrainy na period do 2035 roku "Bezpeka, enerhoefektyvnist, konkurentospromozhnist" (Dokument № 605-2017-r, vtratyv chynnist 21.04.2023). https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/605-2017-r#Text
4. Safa, H. (2017). The impact of energy on global economy. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 7(2), 287–295. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/361746
5. Šikić, T. F. (2020). The impact of energy consumption on economic growth in developed and post-transition countries of European Union. Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci, 38(2), 475–497.
6. Deka, A., Ozdeser, H., & Seraj, M. (2023). The impact of primary energy supply, effective capital and renewable energy on economic growth in the EU27 countries: A dynamic panel GMM analysis. Renewable Energy, 219(Part 1). https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0960148123013654
7. Vakulenko, I., Lyulyov, O., Pimonenko, T., & Bondar, T. (2024). The impact of energy on a country’s social and economic development. AIP Conference Proceedings. https://pubs.aip.org/aip/acp/article-abstract/3033/1/020014/2933215
8. Sonowal, K., & Ao, B. (2025). Energy security and sustainability: Lessons and future challenges. In The Intersection of Global Energy Politics and Climate Change (pp. 373–387). https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-96-0535-4_17
9. Voynarenko, M., Dykha, M. V., Mykoliuk, O., Yemchuk, L., & Danilkova, A. (2018). Assessment of an enterprise’s energy security based on multi-criteria tasks modeling. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 16(4), 102–116. https://doi.org/10.21511/ppm.16(4).2018.10
10. Dykha, M., & Dykha, V. (2023). Bezpieczeństwo energetyczne Ukrainy pod pryzmatem wojny. Prace naukowe Wyższej Szkoły Zarządzania i Przedsiębiorczości z siedzibą w Wałbrzychu, 53(1), 71–84. https://pracenaukowe.wwszip.pl/prace/PN_53.pdf
11. Dykha, V., Dykha, M., Lukianova, V., Polozova, V., & Ivanov, M. (2024). Energy security management in the context of current challenges and international experience. Polityka Energetyczna – Energy Policy Journal, 27(4), 133–154. https://doi.org/10.33223/epj/190485
12. Lisovyi, A. V. (2024). Enerhetychna bezpeka Ukrainy: druhyi rik viiny. Modeling the Development of the Economic Systems, 124–129.
13. Atamanenko, A., & Piddubnyi, V. (2023). The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on EU energy security. https://doi.org/10.26693/ahpsxxi2023.si.035
14. Mazaraki, A., & Melnyk, T. (2024). Energy security: New challenges and global trends. Scientia Fructuosa, 3(155). https://journals.knute.edu.ua/scientia-fructuosa/article/view/2079/1886
15. Gitelman, L., Magaril, E., & Kozhevnikov, M. (2023). Energy security: New threats and solutions. Energies, 16(6), 2869. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16062869
16. Kim, J., Jaumotte, F., Panton, A. J., & Schwerhoff, G. (2025). Energy security and the green transition. Energy Policy, 198, 114409. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421524004294
17. Wang, Q., Ren, F., & Li, R. (2024). Geopolitics and energy security: A comprehensive exploration of evolution, collaborations, and future directions. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 11, 1071. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-024-03507-2
18. Rao, A., Kumar, S., & Gupta, P. (2025). Decarbonization dilemmas: Evaluating the impact on energy security and equity in emerging economies. Energy Economics, 108448. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0140988325002725
19. Dykha, M. V. (2016). Economic mechanism toolkit for state regulation of socioeconomic processes. Actual Problems of Economics, 5(179), 20–29. https://elar.khmnu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/5395
20. Tkach, D. (2023). Yaki vtraty ponesla enerhosystema Ukrainy vnaslidok masovykh atak z boku Rosii. Ekonomika ta suspilstvo, 52. https://www.economyandsociety.in.ua/index.php/journal/article/view/2556
21. Brodny, J., & Tutak, M. (2023). Assessing the energy security of European Union countries from two perspectives: A new integrated approach based on MCDM methods. Applied Energy, 347, 121443. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261923008073
22. Ziemba, P. (2022). Energy security assessment based on a new dynamic multi-criteria decision-making framework. Energies, 15, 9356. https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/24/9356
23. Bilbao-Terol, A., Cañal-Fernández, V., & Gónzalez-Pérez, C. (2023). Evaluating energy security using Choquet integral: Analysis in the southern E.U. countries. Annals of Operations Research. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-023-05748-x
24. Dykha, M., Dykha, V., Pylypyak, O., Poplavska, O., Tanasiienko, N., & Tanasiienko, V. (2023). Risk management of startup projects. In 2023 IEEE 4th KhPI Week on Advanced Technology (KhPIWeek) (pp. 616–621). https://doi.org/10.1109/KhPIWeek61412.2023.10311582
25. Sukhodolia, O. M. (Ed.). (2023). Enerhetychna bezpeka Ukrainy: Perspektyvna model upravlinnia ryzykamy (Monohrafiia). NISD. https://doi.org/10.53679/NISS-book.2023.01
26. Dykha, M. V., Liubokhynets, L., Tanasiienko, N. P., Moroz, S., & Poplavska, O. (2019). Elimination of the influence of investment, financial and operational risks on the organisation economic security. Journal of Security and Sustainability Issues, 9(1), 13–26. https://journals.lka.lt/journal/jssi/article/980/info
27. Minprom. (n.d.). Zbytky i vtraty enerhetyky Ukrainy vnaslidok viiny perevyshchuiut $56 mlrd. https://minprom.ua/news/315189.html
28. Ofitsiinyi visnyk Ukrainy. (2016). Vymohy do seismostiikoho proektuvannia ta otsinky seismichnoi bezpeky enerhoblokiv atomnykh stantsii: NP 306.2.208-2016, (92), 3013.
29. Haenni, R., Romeijn, J.-W., Wheeler, G., & Williamson, J. (2011). Probabilistic logics and probabilistic networks. Springer.
30. Dreyfus, G. (2005). Neural networks: Methodology and applications. Springer-Verlag.
31. Masters, T. (1993). Practical neural network recipes in C++. Academic Press.
ABSTRACT. The article substantiates the importance of ensuring Ukraine's energy security, the state of which is determined by the conditions of the internal environment of the functioning and development of the energy system, as well as the influence of external environmental factors. The spectrum of threats to Ukraine's energy security is identified in the following areas: threats caused by war; threats of a financial, economic, technical and technological nature; cyber threats and information attacks; environmental requirements and climate challenges; threats associated with corruption and ineffective management. A scientific and methodical approach to assessing the level of threats to energy security based on probabilistic neural networks is proposed. The input parameters for assessing the degree of threats to the country's energy security are proposed to be formed on the basis of an expert survey. To check the consistency of expert judgments, it is proposed to carry out clustering of expert assessments. The authors substantiate that a clear identification of threats in terms of their types, taking into account their content, qualitative and quantitative context of threats, and assessment of the probable degree of threats using the proposed scientific and methodical approach based on neural networks will serve as the basis for making informed management decisions to prevent / minimize / eliminate the negative impact of factors on the energy security of Ukraine.
Keywords: energy security, energy sector, threats, risks, assessment, management, economic and mathematical modeling, neural networks.
References
1. Ministerstvo enerhetyky Ukrainy. (n.d.). Intehratsiia u yevropeisku elektromerezhu ENTSO-E. https://mev.gov.ua/reforma/intehratsiya-u-yevropeysku-elektromerezhu-entso-e2. Kabinet Ministriv Ukrainy. (2023, April 21). Pro skhvalennia Enerhetychnoi stratehii Ukrainy na period do 2050 roku (Rozporiadzhennia № 373-r). https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/373-2023-r#Text
3. Kabinet Ministriv Ukrainy. (2017). Pro skhvalennia Enerhetychnoi stratehii Ukrainy na period do 2035 roku "Bezpeka, enerhoefektyvnist, konkurentospromozhnist" (Dokument № 605-2017-r, vtratyv chynnist 21.04.2023). https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/605-2017-r#Text
4. Safa, H. (2017). The impact of energy on global economy. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 7(2), 287–295. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/361746
5. Šikić, T. F. (2020). The impact of energy consumption on economic growth in developed and post-transition countries of European Union. Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci, 38(2), 475–497.
6. Deka, A., Ozdeser, H., & Seraj, M. (2023). The impact of primary energy supply, effective capital and renewable energy on economic growth in the EU27 countries: A dynamic panel GMM analysis. Renewable Energy, 219(Part 1). https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0960148123013654
7. Vakulenko, I., Lyulyov, O., Pimonenko, T., & Bondar, T. (2024). The impact of energy on a country’s social and economic development. AIP Conference Proceedings. https://pubs.aip.org/aip/acp/article-abstract/3033/1/020014/2933215
8. Sonowal, K., & Ao, B. (2025). Energy security and sustainability: Lessons and future challenges. In The Intersection of Global Energy Politics and Climate Change (pp. 373–387). https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-96-0535-4_17
9. Voynarenko, M., Dykha, M. V., Mykoliuk, O., Yemchuk, L., & Danilkova, A. (2018). Assessment of an enterprise’s energy security based on multi-criteria tasks modeling. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 16(4), 102–116. https://doi.org/10.21511/ppm.16(4).2018.10
10. Dykha, M., & Dykha, V. (2023). Bezpieczeństwo energetyczne Ukrainy pod pryzmatem wojny. Prace naukowe Wyższej Szkoły Zarządzania i Przedsiębiorczości z siedzibą w Wałbrzychu, 53(1), 71–84. https://pracenaukowe.wwszip.pl/prace/PN_53.pdf
11. Dykha, V., Dykha, M., Lukianova, V., Polozova, V., & Ivanov, M. (2024). Energy security management in the context of current challenges and international experience. Polityka Energetyczna – Energy Policy Journal, 27(4), 133–154. https://doi.org/10.33223/epj/190485
12. Lisovyi, A. V. (2024). Enerhetychna bezpeka Ukrainy: druhyi rik viiny. Modeling the Development of the Economic Systems, 124–129.
13. Atamanenko, A., & Piddubnyi, V. (2023). The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on EU energy security. https://doi.org/10.26693/ahpsxxi2023.si.035
14. Mazaraki, A., & Melnyk, T. (2024). Energy security: New challenges and global trends. Scientia Fructuosa, 3(155). https://journals.knute.edu.ua/scientia-fructuosa/article/view/2079/1886
15. Gitelman, L., Magaril, E., & Kozhevnikov, M. (2023). Energy security: New threats and solutions. Energies, 16(6), 2869. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16062869
16. Kim, J., Jaumotte, F., Panton, A. J., & Schwerhoff, G. (2025). Energy security and the green transition. Energy Policy, 198, 114409. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421524004294
17. Wang, Q., Ren, F., & Li, R. (2024). Geopolitics and energy security: A comprehensive exploration of evolution, collaborations, and future directions. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 11, 1071. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-024-03507-2
18. Rao, A., Kumar, S., & Gupta, P. (2025). Decarbonization dilemmas: Evaluating the impact on energy security and equity in emerging economies. Energy Economics, 108448. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0140988325002725
19. Dykha, M. V. (2016). Economic mechanism toolkit for state regulation of socioeconomic processes. Actual Problems of Economics, 5(179), 20–29. https://elar.khmnu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/5395
20. Tkach, D. (2023). Yaki vtraty ponesla enerhosystema Ukrainy vnaslidok masovykh atak z boku Rosii. Ekonomika ta suspilstvo, 52. https://www.economyandsociety.in.ua/index.php/journal/article/view/2556
21. Brodny, J., & Tutak, M. (2023). Assessing the energy security of European Union countries from two perspectives: A new integrated approach based on MCDM methods. Applied Energy, 347, 121443. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261923008073
22. Ziemba, P. (2022). Energy security assessment based on a new dynamic multi-criteria decision-making framework. Energies, 15, 9356. https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/24/9356
23. Bilbao-Terol, A., Cañal-Fernández, V., & Gónzalez-Pérez, C. (2023). Evaluating energy security using Choquet integral: Analysis in the southern E.U. countries. Annals of Operations Research. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-023-05748-x
24. Dykha, M., Dykha, V., Pylypyak, O., Poplavska, O., Tanasiienko, N., & Tanasiienko, V. (2023). Risk management of startup projects. In 2023 IEEE 4th KhPI Week on Advanced Technology (KhPIWeek) (pp. 616–621). https://doi.org/10.1109/KhPIWeek61412.2023.10311582
25. Sukhodolia, O. M. (Ed.). (2023). Enerhetychna bezpeka Ukrainy: Perspektyvna model upravlinnia ryzykamy (Monohrafiia). NISD. https://doi.org/10.53679/NISS-book.2023.01
26. Dykha, M. V., Liubokhynets, L., Tanasiienko, N. P., Moroz, S., & Poplavska, O. (2019). Elimination of the influence of investment, financial and operational risks on the organisation economic security. Journal of Security and Sustainability Issues, 9(1), 13–26. https://journals.lka.lt/journal/jssi/article/980/info
27. Minprom. (n.d.). Zbytky i vtraty enerhetyky Ukrainy vnaslidok viiny perevyshchuiut $56 mlrd. https://minprom.ua/news/315189.html
28. Ofitsiinyi visnyk Ukrainy. (2016). Vymohy do seismostiikoho proektuvannia ta otsinky seismichnoi bezpeky enerhoblokiv atomnykh stantsii: NP 306.2.208-2016, (92), 3013.
29. Haenni, R., Romeijn, J.-W., Wheeler, G., & Williamson, J. (2011). Probabilistic logics and probabilistic networks. Springer.
30. Dreyfus, G. (2005). Neural networks: Methodology and applications. Springer-Verlag.
31. Masters, T. (1993). Practical neural network recipes in C++. Academic Press.
© 2025 The Author(s)
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
Dykha, V., Dykha, M., Liubokhynets, L., Tanasiienko, N., & Poplavskyi, Y. (2025). SCIENTIFIC-METHODICAL APPROACH TO ASSESSING THREATS TO UKRAINE’S ENERGY SECURITY USING NEURAL NETWORKS. International Interdisciplinary Scientific Journal "Expert", 2(1), 22–34. https://doi.org/10.62034/2815-5300/2025-v2-i1-002
Citation Format APA
Dykha, V., Dykha, M., Liubokhynets, L., Tanasiienko, N., & Poplavskyi, Y. (2025). SCIENTIFIC-METHODICAL APPROACH TO ASSESSING THREATS TO UKRAINE’S ENERGY SECURITY USING NEURAL NETWORKS. International Interdisciplinary Scientific Journal "Expert", 2(1), 22–34. https://doi.org/10.62034/2815-5300/2025-v2-i1-002.
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